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The Bank of Canada makes its next rate announcement on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, at 9:45 a.m. ET. If your mortgage renews in the next year, here's what that decision can and can't change, and what to do before it lands.

2.25%
Bank of Canada policy rate, held September 2
Oct 28
next announcement, 9:45 a.m. ET
+$366/mo
illustrative: $500K, 20-yr, 3.5% vs. 2.0%
+$758/mo
illustrative: same mortgage at 5.0% vs. 2.0%

Where the Bank of Canada Stands

On September 2, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%. The next scheduled announcement is October 28, which will come with a Monetary Policy Report. Market expectations for what comes next are split, so this post does not try to predict it.

The Part Most Renewal Articles Skip

The policy rate mainly moves variable-rate mortgages and lines of credit. Fixed mortgage rates follow Government of Canada bond yields, which move on their own schedule, often before and after the announcement. So a "hold" on October 28 doesn't mean your fixed renewal offer stays put, and a move doesn't automatically change it either.

What a Payment Change Looks Like

Here's an illustrative example only. It uses a $500,000 balance, a 20-year remaining amortization, and Canadian semi-annual compounding. The rates shown are examples, not quotes or forecasts.

Renewal rate (example) Monthly payment Change vs. 2.00%
2.00% $2,527 n/a
3.50% $2,893 +$366 (+14.5%)
4.50% $3,152 +$625 (+24.7%)
5.00% $3,286 +$758 (+30.0%)

Your own number depends on your balance, remaining amortization and the rate you're offered. Run it with your own figures before your renewal letter arrives.

What to Do Before October 28

  • Find your renewal date. Check your mortgage statement, then look out for your lender's renewal offer. You're generally free to compare it with other lenders.
  • Get at least one competing quote. A broker can price the same term across several lenders.
  • Work out your payment at a few rates. If a higher payment would strain your budget, deal with it now.
  • Talk to your lender early if you expect to struggle. Lenders have the most options before a payment is missed.

If Payments Are Already Behind

Missed payments can lead to a notice of sale under the Mortgages Act, and the process has specific timelines and rights. Here's how power of sale works in Ontario, and you can see what we track for Durham Region.

Worried about a renewal or a payment you can't make? Contact our team and we'll walk through your options.

This article is for general information only and is not financial or legal advice. Speak with a licensed mortgage broker or a lawyer about your situation. Payment figures are illustrative and not rate quotes.

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If you locked in a mortgage during the ultra-low-rate window of 2020-2021, 2026 is likely the year that renewal notice lands in your mailbox — and for a growing number of Ontario homeowners, the number on it is a genuine shock. Here's what's actually happening and what your real options are.

The Scale of What's Renewing

More than $200 billion in GTA-area mortgages are coming up for renewal in 2026, the vast majority originated during the historically low rates of 2020-2021. For many of these homeowners, renewing today means a materially higher monthly payment than what they've been paying for the past several years — sometimes hundreds of dollars more per month.

CMHC projects mortgage delinquency rates could peak near 0.30% by mid-2026. That number sounds small, but it's meaningfully higher than anything seen in the past decade, and it's exactly the kind of pressure that has historically preceded increased power of sale activity across the GTA.

The Genuinely Good News

Rates have actually improved. Five-year fixed mortgage rates are currently sitting in the 3.79%-4.2% range — well below the peaks of recent years. For homeowners who can still qualify for a renewal or refinance at these rates, this is a more accessible window to restructure debt than anything available in the past two years.

The Catch: Qualifying Is the Real Obstacle

Better rates don't help if you can't qualify for them. Tighter bank lending standards, softer property values in many GTA submarkets, and the mortgage stress test remaining in effect mean that homeowners already in arrears — or close to it — often can't access conventional refinancing, even with rates coming down. Private lending fills some of that gap, but it comes at a real cost that has to be weighed carefully.

Why This Matters for the Power of Sale Conversation

This renewal wave is precisely the dynamic behind the broader increase in power of sale activity we've been tracking across Peel, York, and Durham Region over the past year. Homeowners who bought at or near the 2021-2022 peak, financed with low fixed rates that are now expiring, are the group most exposed to this renewal shock — and the group most likely to fall behind if refinancing doesn't come through.

What to Do If Your Renewal Notice Is a Shock

  • Act the moment you see the new number, not when a payment is missed. Lenders have far more flexibility to work with a homeowner who reaches out proactively than one already in default.

  • Get a real refinancing quote before assuming you don't qualify. Rates have moved enough that a renewal that looked impossible six months ago may be workable now.

  • Understand where you stand if refinancing isn't an option. Knowing how the power of sale process actually works in Ontario — including your redemption rights — puts you in a stronger position to make decisions early rather than reactively.

  • Talk to a mortgage broker who specializes in renewal and refinance scenarios, not just new purchases — this is a genuinely different conversation with different tools available.

What This Means If You're a Buyer Watching This Market

If you've been tracking power of sale opportunities as a buyer, this renewal wave is a leading indicator worth watching over the next several months — particularly in the 905-region markets where 2021-2022 peak buying was heaviest.

The Bottom Line

$200 billion in mortgage renewals hitting in a single year is a genuinely significant event for the GTA housing market, and its effects will show up gradually over the coming months — through refinancing activity for some homeowners, and through rising power of sale activity for others. Where you land on that spectrum depends heavily on acting early.

Facing a mortgage renewal you're worried about, or want to understand your options before it becomes urgent? Contact our team — the earlier the conversation, the more options are usually still on the table.

This article is for general informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a licensed mortgage broker or financial advisor about your specific situation.

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